Pre-tourney Rankings
UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2011-12
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#236
Expected Predictive Rating-3.9#231
Pace68.1#152
Improvement-3.7#294

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#215
Improvement-2.4#278

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#265
Improvement-1.3#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round0.0% n/a n/a
Second Round0.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2011 125   @ Maryland L 62-71 16%     0 - 1 -2.7 -7.6 +4.7
  Nov 19, 2011 65   @ Dayton L 49-74 8%     0 - 2 -14.2 -18.3 +2.4
  Nov 22, 2011 76   Marshall L 64-69 23%     0 - 3 -1.7 -4.8 +2.8
  Nov 26, 2011 74   Davidson L 67-70 23%     0 - 4 +0.3 -5.7 +6.0
  Nov 30, 2011 197   @ Toledo L 73-75 28%     0 - 5 -0.5 +3.9 -4.6
  Dec 03, 2011 101   @ Illinois St. W 63-54 12%     1 - 5 +17.2 +0.6 +17.5
  Dec 06, 2011 285   @ Liberty W 77-68 48%     2 - 5 +5.1 -7.2 +11.4
  Dec 17, 2011 52   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-87 7%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -11.3 -3.5 -7.3
  Dec 19, 2011 245   Campbell W 67-65 64%     3 - 6 -6.2 -7.1 +1.1
  Dec 21, 2011 195   @ Wake Forest L 78-87 28%     3 - 7 -7.4 +3.0 -10.1
  Dec 30, 2011 238   Furman W 72-61 63%     4 - 7 +3.1 +0.1 +3.6
  Jan 02, 2012 166   Delaware W 80-75 46%     5 - 7 1 - 1 +1.7 +8.4 -6.5
  Jan 04, 2012 200   @ Northeastern W 70-62 28%     6 - 7 2 - 1 +9.5 +4.4 +5.7
  Jan 07, 2012 218   Hofstra W 86-80 58%     7 - 7 3 - 1 -0.5 +9.0 -9.6
  Jan 12, 2012 98   @ Georgia St. L 61-75 12%     7 - 8 3 - 2 -5.6 -5.4 +0.1
  Jan 14, 2012 63   Drexel L 57-79 21%     7 - 9 3 - 3 -17.9 -8.3 -11.5
  Jan 18, 2012 249   James Madison L 61-69 65%     7 - 10 3 - 4 -16.5 -12.9 -4.3
  Jan 21, 2012 290   @ William & Mary W 68-66 49%     8 - 10 4 - 4 -2.3 +1.5 -3.5
  Jan 23, 2012 112   @ George Mason L 61-67 14%     8 - 11 4 - 5 +1.4 -6.2 +7.6
  Jan 25, 2012 107   Old Dominion L 48-53 31%     8 - 12 4 - 6 -4.2 -18.6 +14.2
  Jan 28, 2012 331   @ Towson L 61-66 73%     8 - 13 4 - 7 -15.9 -8.4 -8.0
  Feb 01, 2012 98   Georgia St. L 53-68 28%     8 - 14 4 - 8 -13.4 -16.1 +2.8
  Feb 04, 2012 290   William & Mary W 81-68 74%     9 - 14 5 - 8 +1.9 +9.0 -5.8
  Feb 08, 2012 166   @ Delaware L 53-71 23%     9 - 15 5 - 9 -14.5 -15.6 +0.1
  Feb 11, 2012 112   George Mason L 69-75 31%     9 - 16 5 - 10 -5.4 -1.2 -4.3
  Feb 14, 2012 107   @ Old Dominion L 64-81 13%     9 - 17 5 - 11 -9.4 +0.3 -10.1
  Feb 18, 2012 127   @ Manhattan L 64-79 16%     9 - 18 -8.9 -11.9 +4.7
  Feb 22, 2012 52   Virginia Commonwealth L 59-63 19%     9 - 19 5 - 12 +0.9 -8.4 +9.1
  Feb 25, 2012 218   @ Hofstra L 64-93 32%     9 - 20 5 - 13 -28.7 -9.9 -17.7
  Mar 02, 2012 249   James Madison W 70-59 53%     10 - 20 +5.9 -1.9 +8.5
  Mar 03, 2012 63   Drexel L 47-59 13%     10 - 21 -4.5 -7.1 -1.0
Projected Record 10.0 - 21.0 5.0 - 13.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 100.0 100.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 100.0% 100.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%